Afghanistan: What Happens After the U.S. Withdraws?

On July 15, young professionals gathered to discuss a topic that has aroused positive and negative reactions from experts, policymakers, and U.S. citizens alike: the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan. Despite the nearly 60 percent of Americans agreeing with the decision (Quinnipiac), concerns about human rights and the resurgence of Islamic terror voiced by President George W. Bush and General David Petraeus, top decision-makers at the height of the war, has led others to wonder: “Are we doing the right thing?”

Our discussion participants, from a variety of backgrounds and disciplines, agreed that the answer to this question depends on perspective.  Some Afghans believe the U.S withdrawal is one step in the mission of retrieving their country from foreign intervention and creating a government that embodies Afghanistan’s values.  However, this fact overlooks the many Afghans that assisted the U.S. government as translators and lookouts that face increased threats of revenge killings by the Taliban insurgency, which has claimed over 150 districts surrounding Kabul. A recently released UN report discovered that a record 5,000 civilian casualties occurred in the first half of 2021, attributed entirely to fighting between the Taliban and other anti-government forces (69%) and pro-government forces (UN). The Taliban has severely curtailed and punished freedom of expression in its controlled territories. Most importantly, women have fled their homes in fear of the Taliban forcing them to marry their fighters or become sex slaves (Foreign Policy). Moreover, reports from Taliban captured districts prove the Taliban’s allegiance to reinstalling its hardline pre-2001 regime that severely curtailed female independence in Afghan society. Experts predict the increased violence and abrogation of basic freedoms will only worsen as the U.S. pulls out and the Taliban tightens its stranglehold on Kabul. The U.S withdrawal appears to leave certain Afghans more vulnerable to attacks on their physical and political autonomy.

Conversely, over two thousand U.S. soldiers have died in Afghanistan trying to prop up the government since the U.S. unseated the Taliban from power in 2001.  Despite substantial gains in women’s participation in Afghan society, two presidential elections, and the assassination of Osama Bin Laden, fissures across ethnic and ideological lines have increasingly encumbered efforts to create a fully functional democracy.  Continuing in this nation-building exercise to be a fools’ errand and ruinous waste of substantial resources indispensable in the U.S. effort to counter China’s rise.

In these stark terms, the decision to withdraw from Afghanistan is a clear example of the U.S. doing right by itself.  Yet, the consequences of U.S. involvement and withdrawal from Afghanistan warrant that the U.S. figure out how to do right by Afghanistan. Afghanistan faces not only internal challenges related to the Taliban but also external state and non-state forces wishing to capitalize on its weakness and undermine Afghanistan’s sovereignty and stability to expand their sphere of influence. The deteriorating security situation and widespread government distrust and corruption will continue long beyond the U.S. withdrawal. Therefore, the U.S needs to assist Afghanistan in addressing and defending against these challenges as their relationship evolves to accommodate a self-sufficient Afghanistan and its own changing priorities. 

By Nina Burges, YPIA Intern